MYP Maths Teacher Toolkit: Probability

This is the third post in a series designed to help MYP Maths teachers connect with resources that align with the IB Approaches to Teaching (ATT). In this edition, I’m highlighting six effective resources you can use to introduce theoretical probability using sample space tables and comparing with experimental probability. These activities are most suitable for MYP1 and MYP2 learners.

1: Contextualised

Probability Fair

Who doesn’t love a fairground challenge? In this activity, students earn tickets by choosing the most likely colour to be spun then spend them on different booths playing chance games. It’s ideal for launching a unit on probability, allowing for low-stakes exploration and informal pre-assessment of students' intuitive understanding of likelihood and chance.

2: Concept-Driven

Horse Race Game 

This is a simple activity for introducing the outcomes of combined events. While the resource shared is a worksheet, other variations include making it a whole class activity by asking 11 students to represent the horses. Each roll (on large dice or digital ones viewed on the board) that sums to their number is a step forward, and the first to reach 5 steps wins. Making the process so visual helps students to see how some numbers (6, 7, 8) can be made in more ways than others (2, 12) and are therefore more likely to win.

3: Differentiated

Sample Space Diagrams practice

`This DrFrost practice offers a structured progression through five subskills, helping students build understanding step-by-step before attempting more complex exam-style questions. They can practice independently without creating an account, or you can register them (up to three classes for free at the time of writing) to track their progress.

4: Inquiry-Based

Open Middle Spinner Problem

This open-ended task invites students to work backwards to create spinners that satisfy certain probability conditions. The activity has a low floor (students can experiment and see what happens) and a high ceiling (finding multiple valid solutions, communicating their process, discovering patterns or a general case for numbers beyond 9).

5: Informed by Assessment

Bowland Maths Spinner Bingo

This assessment task provides a new context in which to apply understanding of sample space diagrams. Students consider 8-sectioned spinners in a bingo-style game, which encourages them to transfer insights from earlier activities (such as the horse race) into a slightly different setting and communicate their reasoning.

6: Collaborative

From theoretical to experimental

This activity aims to introduce students to the Law of Large numbers - appreciating that with enough trials, the results of the experiment will more closely match what was expected to happen based on the theoretical probability. This should come after students are familiar with sample space tables. Initially, results from individual pairs may not match the theoretical outcomes predicted by sample space tables. However, when the class aggregates their results, students can observe how (hopefully) results align more closely with their theoretical probability.